Feat: Add Early Fader mean reversion strategy

app/dash/page.js

@@ -11,7 +11,6 @@ export default function LiveDashboard() {
   const [trades, setTrades] = useState([]);
   const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);
   const [toggling, setToggling] = useState(null);
-  const [activeTrade, setActiveTrade] = useState(null);
 
   useEffect(() => {
     const fetchState = async () => {
@@ -296,9 +295,28 @@ function MarketCard({ market }) {
 function LiveOrderRow({ order, isOpen }) {
   const won = order.result && order.side?.toLowerCase() === order.result?.toLowerCase();
   const isNeutral = order.result === 'cancelled' || order.result === 'expired';
-  const pnlVal = order.pnl != null ? (typeof order.pnl === 'number' && Math.abs(order.pnl) > 50 ? order.pnl / 100 : order.pnl) : null;
+
+  const rawPnl = order?.pnl != null ? Number(order.pnl) : null;
+  const pnlVal = Number.isFinite(rawPnl)
+    ? (Number.isInteger(rawPnl) ? rawPnl / 100 : rawPnl)
+    : null;
+
   const pnlColor = pnlVal == null ? 'text-gray-600' : pnlVal > 0 ? 'text-green-400' : pnlVal < 0 ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-gray-400';
 
+  const priceRaw = Number(order.priceCents ?? order.price);
+  const priceCents = Number.isFinite(priceRaw)
+    ? (priceRaw > 0 && priceRaw <= 1 ? Math.round(priceRaw * 100) : Math.round(priceRaw))
+    : null;
+
+  const contractsRaw = Number(order.contracts ?? 1);
+  const contracts = Number.isFinite(contractsRaw) && contractsRaw > 0 ? contractsRaw : 1;
+
+  const hasExpected = isOpen && priceCents != null && priceCents > 0 && priceCents < 100;
+  const grossPayout = hasExpected ? contracts : null; // $1 per winning contract
+  const cost = hasExpected ? (priceCents / 100) * contracts : null;
+  const winPnL = hasExpected ? grossPayout - cost : null;
+  const losePnL = hasExpected ? -cost : null;
+
   return (
     <div className="bg-gray-900 rounded-lg p-3 border border-gray-800 mb-2">
       <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
@@ -316,10 +334,26 @@ function LiveOrderRow({ order, isOpen }) {
           {pnlVal != null ? `${pnlVal >= 0 ? '+' : ''}$${pnlVal.toFixed(2)}` : 'open'}
         </span>
       </div>
+
       <div className="flex justify-between mt-1">
         <span className="text-[10px] text-gray-600">{order.reason}</span>
         <span className="text-[10px] text-gray-600 capitalize">{order.strategy}</span>
       </div>
+
+      {hasExpected && (
+        <div className="mt-1.5 flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 gap-y-1 text-[10px] text-gray-500">
+          <span>
+            If win: <span className="text-green-400 font-medium">+${winPnL.toFixed(2)}</span>
+          </span>
+          <span>
+            If lose: <span className="text-red-400 font-medium">${losePnL.toFixed(2)}</span>
+          </span>
+          <span>
+            Gross payout: <span className="text-gray-300 font-medium">${grossPayout.toFixed(2)}</span>
+          </span>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
       {order.result && !isOpen && (
         <div className="flex justify-between items-center mt-0.5">
           <span className="text-[10px] text-gray-600">Result: {order.result}</span>

app/paper/page.js

@@ -345,6 +345,14 @@ function TradeRow({ trade, isOpen }) {
   const isNeutral = trade.result === 'cancelled' || trade.result === 'expired';
   const pnlColor = trade.pnl == null ? 'text-gray-400' : trade.pnl > 0 ? 'text-green-600' : trade.pnl < 0 ? 'text-red-600' : 'text-gray-600';
 
+  const price = Number(trade.price);
+  const cost = Number(trade.cost ?? trade.size);
+  const hasExpected = isOpen && Number.isFinite(price) && price > 0 && price < 100 && Number.isFinite(cost) && cost > 0;
+
+  const grossPayout = hasExpected ? (100 / price) * cost : null;
+  const winPnL = hasExpected ? grossPayout - cost : null;
+  const losePnL = hasExpected ? -cost : null;
+
   return (
     <div className="bg-white rounded-lg p-3 border border-gray-200 mb-2 shadow-sm">
       <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
@@ -362,9 +370,25 @@ function TradeRow({ trade, isOpen }) {
           {trade.pnl != null ? `${trade.pnl >= 0 ? '+' : ''}$${trade.pnl}` : 'open'}
         </span>
       </div>
+
       <div className="flex justify-between mt-1">
         <span className="text-[10px] text-gray-400">{trade.reason}</span>
       </div>
+
+      {hasExpected && (
+        <div className="mt-1.5 flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 gap-y-1 text-[10px] text-gray-500">
+          <span>
+            If win: <span className="text-green-600 font-medium">+${winPnL.toFixed(2)}</span>
+          </span>
+          <span>
+            If lose: <span className="text-red-600 font-medium">${losePnL.toFixed(2)}</span>
+          </span>
+          <span>
+            Gross payout: <span className="text-gray-700 font-medium">${grossPayout.toFixed(2)}</span>
+          </span>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
       <div className="flex justify-between items-center mt-0.5">
         {trade.result && !isOpen && (
           <span className="text-[10px] text-gray-400">Result: {trade.result}</span>

lib/strategies/bull-dip-buyer.js

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ export class BullDipBuyer extends BaseStrategy {
     super('bull-dip-buyer', {
       maxYesPrice: config.maxYesPrice || 45,
       minYesPrice: config.minYesPrice || 15,
-      betSize: config.betSize || 1,
+      betSize: config.betSize || 2,
       slippage: config.slippage || 3,
       cooldownMs: config.cooldownMs || 20000,
       marketDurationMin: config.marketDurationMin || 15,

lib/strategies/dont-doubt-bull.js

@@ -1,54 +0,0 @@
-import { BaseStrategy } from './base.js';
-
-export class DontDoubtBullStrategy extends BaseStrategy {
-  constructor(config = {}) {
-    super('dont-doubt-bull', {
-      minYesPct: config.minYesPct || 30,
-      maxYesPct: config.maxYesPct || 40,
-      betSize: config.betSize || 2,
-      slippage: config.slippage || 3,
-      cooldownMs: config.cooldownMs || 20000,
-      ...config
-    });
-
-    this._lastTrade = {
-      paper: { time: 0, ticker: null },
-      live: { time: 0, ticker: null }
-    };
-  }
-
-  evaluate(state, caller = 'paper') {
-    if (!state || !this.enabled || !state.closeTime) return null;
-
-    const track = this._lastTrade[caller] || this._lastTrade.paper;
-    const now = Date.now();
-    if (now - track.time < this.config.cooldownMs) return null;
-    if (state.ticker === track.ticker) return null;
-
-    const timeLeftMs = new Date(state.closeTime).getTime() - now;
-    const minsLeft = timeLeftMs / 60000;
-    if (minsLeft > 14 || minsLeft < 10) return null;
-
-    const { yesPct } = state;
-
-    if (yesPct >= this.config.minYesPct && yesPct <= this.config.maxYesPct) {
-      const maxPrice = Math.min(yesPct + this.config.slippage, 95);
-
-      const signal = {
-        strategy: this.name,
-        side: 'yes',
-        price: yesPct,
-        maxPrice,
-        size: this.config.betSize,
-        reason: `Early Bullish Dip: ${minsLeft.toFixed(1)}m left, Yes @ ${yesPct}¢`,
-        ticker: state.ticker
-      };
-
-      track.time = now;
-      track.ticker = state.ticker;
-      return signal;
-    }
-
-    return null;
-  }
-}

lib/strategies/early-fader.js

@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
+import { BaseStrategy } from './base.js';
+
+export class EarlyFaderStrategy extends BaseStrategy {
+  constructor(config = {}) {
+    super('early-fader', {
+      spikeThreshold: config.spikeThreshold || 82, // When a side spikes to this %
+      maxElapsedMin: config.maxElapsedMin || 6, // Only fade early spikes (first 6 mins)
+      betSize: config.betSize || 2,
+      slippage: config.slippage || 3,
+      cooldownMs: config.cooldownMs || 20000,
+      marketDurationMin: config.marketDurationMin || 15,
+      ...config
+    });
+
+    this._lastTrade = {
+      paper: { time: 0, ticker: null },
+      live: { time: 0, ticker: null }
+    };
+  }
+
+  evaluate(state, caller = 'paper') {
+    if (!state || !this.enabled || !state.closeTime) return null;
+
+    const track = this._lastTrade[caller] || this._lastTrade.paper;
+    const now = Date.now();
+
+    if (now - track.time < this.config.cooldownMs) return null;
+    if (state.ticker === track.ticker) return null; // 1 trade per market
+
+    const closeTs = new Date(state.closeTime).getTime();
+    const timeLeftMs = closeTs - now;
+    if (!Number.isFinite(timeLeftMs) || timeLeftMs <= 0) return null;
+
+    const elapsedMin = (this.config.marketDurationMin * 60000 - timeLeftMs) / 60000;
+    
+    // Only trade in the designated early window
+    if (elapsedMin < 0 || elapsedMin > this.config.maxElapsedMin) return null;
+
+    const { yesPct, noPct } = state;
+    const threshold = this.config.spikeThreshold;
+
+    let targetSide = null;
+    let targetPrice = null;
+
+    // If YES spikes early, we fade it by buying NO
+    if (yesPct >= threshold && yesPct <= 95) {
+      targetSide = 'no';
+      targetPrice = noPct;
+    }
+    // If NO spikes early, we fade it by buying YES
+    else if (noPct >= threshold && noPct <= 95) {
+      targetSide = 'yes';
+      targetPrice = yesPct;
+    }
+
+    if (!targetSide) return null;
+
+    // Ensure the opposite side is actually cheap (sanity check against weird book states)
+    if (targetPrice > (100 - threshold + 5)) return null;
+
+    // For live trading, check actual orderbook liquidity to avoid blind fills
+    if (caller === 'live') {
+      const bestAsk = this._getBestAsk(state, targetSide);
+      if (bestAsk == null) return null;
+      if (bestAsk > targetPrice + this.config.slippage) return null;
+    }
+
+    const spikeSide = targetSide === 'no' ? 'YES' : 'NO';
+    const signal = {
+      strategy: this.name,
+      side: targetSide,
+      price: targetPrice,
+      maxPrice: Math.min(targetPrice + this.config.slippage, 40),
+      size: this.config.betSize,
+      reason: `Fading early spike (t+${elapsedMin.toFixed(1)}m): ${spikeSide} > ${threshold}¢. Bought ${targetSide.toUpperCase()} @ ${targetPrice}¢`,
+      ticker: state.ticker
+    };
+
+    track.time = now;
+    track.ticker = state.ticker;
+    return signal;
+  }
+
+  _getBestAsk(state, side) {
+    const ob = state.orderbook;
+    if (!ob) return null;
+
+    const oppSide = side === 'yes' ? 'no' : 'yes';
+    if (ob[oppSide]?.length) {
+      const bestOppBid = ob[oppSide][0]?.[0];
+      if (bestOppBid != null) return 100 - bestOppBid;
+    }
+    return null;
+  }
+
+  toJSON() {
+    return {
+      ...super.toJSON(),
+      lastTradeTicker: this._lastTrade.live.ticker || this._lastTrade.paper.ticker
+    };
+  }
+}

lib/strategies/late-momentum.js

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+import { BaseStrategy } from './base.js';
+
+/**
+ * Late Momentum Strategy
+ *
+ * Rules:
+ * - Buys momentum on YES or NO
+ * - Requires side price >= triggerPct (default 75)
+ * - Only allowed after first 6 minutes of market lifecycle
+ * - Default window: elapsed minute 6 through 15
+ */
+export class LateMomentumStrategy extends BaseStrategy {
+  constructor(config = {}) {
+    super('late-momentum', {
+      triggerPct: config.triggerPct || 75,
+      betSize: config.betSize || 4,
+      slippage: config.slippage || 3,
+      cooldownMs: config.cooldownMs || 20000,
+      marketDurationMin: config.marketDurationMin || 15,
+      minElapsedMin: config.minElapsedMin || 6,
+      maxElapsedMin: config.maxElapsedMin || 15,
+      ...config
+    });
+
+    this._lastTrade = {
+      paper: { time: 0, ticker: null },
+      live: { time: 0, ticker: null }
+    };
+  }
+
+  evaluate(state, caller = 'paper') {
+    if (!state || !this.enabled || !state.closeTime) return null;
+
+    const track = this._lastTrade[caller] || this._lastTrade.paper;
+    const now = Date.now();
+
+    if (now - track.time < this.config.cooldownMs) return null;
+    if (state.ticker === track.ticker) return null;
+
+    const closeTs = new Date(state.closeTime).getTime();
+    const timeLeftMs = closeTs - now;
+    if (!Number.isFinite(timeLeftMs) || timeLeftMs <= 0) return null;
+
+    const elapsedMin = (this.config.marketDurationMin * 60000 - timeLeftMs) / 60000;
+    if (!Number.isFinite(elapsedMin)) return null;
+
+    // Skip first minutes; trade only in configured late window.
+    if (elapsedMin < this.config.minElapsedMin || elapsedMin > this.config.maxElapsedMin) return null;
+
+    const yesPct = Number(state.yesPct);
+    const noPct = Number(state.noPct);
+    if (!Number.isFinite(yesPct) || !Number.isFinite(noPct)) return null;
+
+    const trigger = this.config.triggerPct;
+    const candidates = [];
+
+    if (yesPct >= trigger && yesPct < 99) candidates.push({ side: 'yes', pct: yesPct });
+    if (noPct >= trigger && noPct < 99) candidates.push({ side: 'no', pct: noPct });
+
+    if (!candidates.length) return null;
+
+    // Prefer the stronger momentum side if both qualify.
+    candidates.sort((a, b) => b.pct - a.pct);
+    const pick = candidates[0];
+
+    const signal = {
+      strategy: this.name,
+      side: pick.side,
+      price: pick.pct,
+      maxPrice: Math.min(pick.pct + this.config.slippage, 95),
+      size: this.config.betSize,
+      reason: `Late momentum: t+${elapsedMin.toFixed(1)}m, ${pick.side.toUpperCase()} @ ${pick.pct}¢`,
+      ticker: state.ticker
+    };
+
+    track.time = now;
+    track.ticker = state.ticker;
+    return signal;
+  }
+}

lib/strategies/martingale-alpha.js

@@ -1,126 +0,0 @@
-import { BaseStrategy } from './base.js';
-import crypto from 'crypto';
-
-/**
- * Martingale Alpha Strategy
- *
- * When odds are between 40-60% for both sides (a ~coin-flip market):
- * - Use crypto.randomInt to pick yes/no
- * - Round 1: bet $1, Round 2: bet $2, Round 3: bet $4
- * - If any round wins, reset to round 1
- * - If all 3 lose, reset to round 1 anyway (cap losses at $7 per cycle)
- *
- * Probability of losing 3 consecutive 50/50s = 12.5%
- * Probability of winning at least 1 of 3 = 87.5%
- */
-export class MartingaleAlphaStrategy extends BaseStrategy {
-  constructor(config = {}) {
-    super('martingale-alpha', {
-      minPct: config.minPct || 40,
-      maxPct: config.maxPct || 60,
-      baseBet: config.baseBet || 1,
-      maxRounds: config.maxRounds || 3,
-      slippage: config.slippage || 3,
-      cooldownMs: config.cooldownMs || 20000,
-      ...config
-    });
-
-    this.round = 0;
-    this.currentBetSize = this.config.baseBet;
-    this.cycleWins = 0;
-    this.cycleLosses = 0;
-    this.totalCycles = 0;
-
-    this._lastTrade = {
-      paper: { time: 0, ticker: null },
-      live: { time: 0, ticker: null }
-    };
-  }
-
-  evaluate(state, caller = 'paper') {
-    if (!state || !this.enabled) return null;
-
-    const track = this._lastTrade[caller] || this._lastTrade.paper;
-    const now = Date.now();
-    if (now - track.time < this.config.cooldownMs) return null;
-    if (state.ticker === track.ticker) return null;
-
-    const { yesPct, noPct } = state;
-    const { minPct, maxPct } = this.config;
-
-    if (yesPct < minPct || yesPct > maxPct) return null;
-    if (noPct < minPct || noPct > maxPct) return null;
-
-    const flip = crypto.randomInt(0, 2);
-    const side = flip === 0 ? 'yes' : 'no';
-    const price = side === 'yes' ? yesPct : noPct;
-    const maxPrice = Math.min(price + this.config.slippage, 95);
-
-    const roundIndex = this.round;
-    const betSize = this.config.baseBet * Math.pow(2, roundIndex);
-
-    const signal = {
-      strategy: this.name,
-      side,
-      price,
-      maxPrice,
-      size: betSize,
-      reason: `R${roundIndex + 1}/${this.config.maxRounds} coin-flip ${side.toUpperCase()} @ ${price}¢ ($${betSize}) | Market: ${yesPct}/${noPct}`,
-      ticker: state.ticker
-    };
-
-    track.time = now;
-    track.ticker = state.ticker;
-    this.currentBetSize = betSize;
-
-    return signal;
-  }
-
-  onSettlement(result, trade) {
-    if (!trade || trade.strategy !== this.name) return;
-
-    const won = trade.side === result;
-
-    if (won) {
-      console.log(`[MartingaleAlpha] WIN on round ${this.round + 1} — cycle complete, resetting`);
-      this.cycleWins++;
-      this.totalCycles++;
-      this._resetCycle();
-    } else {
-      this.round++;
-      if (this.round >= this.config.maxRounds) {
-        console.log(`[MartingaleAlpha] LOST all ${this.config.maxRounds} rounds — cycle failed, resetting`);
-        this.cycleLosses++;
-        this.totalCycles++;
-        this._resetCycle();
-      } else {
-        const nextBet = this.config.baseBet * Math.pow(2, this.round);
-        console.log(`[MartingaleAlpha] LOSS round ${this.round}/${this.config.maxRounds} — next bet: $${nextBet}`);
-        this.currentBetSize = nextBet;
-      }
-    }
-  }
-
-  _resetCycle() {
-    this.round = 0;
-    this.currentBetSize = this.config.baseBet;
-    // Reset both callers' ticker locks so new cycle can trade same market
-    this._lastTrade.paper.ticker = null;
-    this._lastTrade.live.ticker = null;
-  }
-
-  toJSON() {
-    return {
-      ...super.toJSON(),
-      round: this.round + 1,
-      maxRounds: this.config.maxRounds,
-      currentBetSize: this.currentBetSize,
-      cycleWins: this.cycleWins,
-      cycleLosses: this.cycleLosses,
-      totalCycles: this.totalCycles,
-      cycleWinRate: this.totalCycles > 0
-        ? parseFloat(((this.cycleWins / this.totalCycles) * 100).toFixed(1))
-        : 0
-    };
-  }
-}

lib/strategies/momentum-rider.js

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ export class MomentumRiderStrategy extends BaseStrategy {
   constructor(config = {}) {
     super('momentum-rider', {
       triggerPct: config.triggerPct || 75,
-      betSize: config.betSize || 2,
+      betSize: config.betSize || 4,
       slippage: config.slippage || 3,
       cooldownMs: config.cooldownMs || 20000,
       ...config